Roger Lu
Every day, over 100,000 aircraft takeoff and land across the world. As technology develops, this number increases and is now approaching nearly 40,000,000 flights a year. From short-haul flights such as Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin to ultra-long-haul routes flights like Perth to London, all of these flights contribute to the 2.4% of global human-induced carbon dioxide emissions. In order to counter aviation’s growing CO2 emissions which are projected to triple by 2050, leading airlines and aircraft manufacturers are taking measures to become carbon-neutral and enhance the efficiency of next-generation aircraft.
Aviation’s Current Environmental Sustainability Innovations:
The Manufacturers:
In the past decade, major manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing have developed new aircraft to combat rising carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide/nitric oxide (NOx) emissions.
Boeing:
The Boeing Company, one of the two major aircraft manufacturing corporations in the world, has produced two innovative families of aircraft which exist today - the revolutionary 787 Dreamliner and the unfortunate 737 MAX.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a mid-size, twin-engine widebody capable of flying some of the world’s longest routes. The 787 intended to replace the aging and less fuel-efficient 767, a previous Boeing aircraft that’s currently being retired by many airlines. Approximately 10 years ago, the 787 took flight for the first time before entering service a few years later. The 787 is known for being created with 50% composite materials, which reduces the the weight of the aircraft and offers 20-25% lower CO2 emissions, reduced NOx emissions, and 60% less noise pollution compared to similarly-sized aircraft. The 787 is one of the two revolutionary long-haul aircraft currently flying as airlines - such as American Airlines - have chosen the 787 to replace and phase out their older, less environmentally-friendly aircraft. Just three days ago on February 25, 2020, All Nippon Airways, the world’s largest operator of the 787, placed an order for 20 more of Boeing’s 787 aircraft to emphasize the airline’s commitment to environmental sustainability.
In addition to the 787, Boeing also produced the new and infamous 737 MAX to compete with Airbus’ (another global aircraft manufacturer) A320neo Family aircraft. While the 737 MAX’s name has a negative connotation as it fatally crashed twice in the past year killing 346 people, led to a worldwide grounding of the aircraft, and caused thousands of flights to be cancelled, it was another innovation for sustainable flight. There are currently around 5,000 orders for the Boeing 737 MAX (subject to change) which will replace aging narrow-body aircraft like Boeing’s previous 737 model, the 737 Next Generation. With its efficient CFM LEAP-1B engines, the 737 MAX delivers a 14% reduction in carbon emissions, 40% noise reduction, and is 50% below the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection’s (CAEP) NOx limits.
Airbus:
On the side of the world, there’s Airbus, a European company that recently overtook Boeing in 2019 as the world’ largest airline manufacturer. The company also produced two families of revolutionary aircraft which are flying today: the A320neo and A350.
The A320neo, consisting of the A319neo, A320neo, and A321neo is Airbus’ solution to replacing older narrow-body aircraft. The A320neo is simply a re-engined version of the old A320 family as the “neo” in the name stands for “New Engine Option”. With its new CFM LEAP-1A or Pratt & Whitney PW1100G-JM engines, the A320neo Family is able to deliver around a 20% reduction in carbon emissions or 5,000 tons of carbon per year, 50% reduced noise production, and is 50% below the CAEP’s NOx limits.
Additionally, Airbus has created the elegant A350XWB, a wide-body aircraft which currently flies the world’s longest flight, Singapore and Newark, and potentially 20-hour ultra-long-haul routes such as direct Sydney to London in the near future. The A350 consists of lightweight materials and the world’s current most fuel-efficient engine, the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engines. As a result, these new technologies allow the A350 to have a 25%-30% lower fuel burn and CO2 emissions, 40% noise reduction, and 28% below the CAEP’s NOx limits when compared to previous generation aircraft.
The Airlines:
Aircraft manufacturers aren’t the only leaders in environmentally-sustainable aviation as airlines are also taking measures to reduce their own CO2 and NOx emissions when operating flights.
JetBlue:
JetBlue, a major U.S. airline headquartered in Long Island, has been working on offsetting its CO2 emissions since 2008. Its carbon offsetting program includes projects such as forest conservation, landfill gas capture (LFG), and promoting solar and wind farms. JetBlue has recently announced they will completely offset all CO2 emissions from jet fuel on domestic JetBlue flights. Additionally, the airline intends to begin using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) on flights from San Francisco Airport later this year. SAF is produced from 100% waste and residue raw materials with an 80% lower carbon footprint compared to the current fossil fuel-based jet fuel. On top of this, JetBlue has committed to enhancing its fleet with over 85 of Airbus’ efficient and more environmentally-friendly A321neo aircraft.
Delta Air Lines:
In addition to JetBlue, Delta Air Lines, the world’s second largest airline based in Atlanta, has committed $1 billion for a 10-year plan to reduce all emissions from March 2020 and onward. Delta will invest this money to promote innovation for clean air travel technologies and accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions and waste. Since 2005, the airline has reduced over 11% of emissions with electric ground vehicles and newer aircraft. 98% of Delta’s emissions are coming from its aircraft, so they will be investing in a more environmentally-friendly fleet with the Airbus A350XWB, A321neo and Airbus’ other new narrow-body aircraft, the A220. One of Delta’s carbon offsetting programs supports projects such as Conservation Coast, a 54,000 hectare conservation that provides sustainable benefits for communities. Additionally, Delta has become more conservative by reducing single-use plastics such as stir sticks, wrappers, utensils, and straws by replacing them with reusable alternatives. They’ve also unveiled brand-new First/Business Class amenity kits to remove the plastic outer wrap, which has avoided 30,000 pounds of plastic waste from landfills in one year. Delta was also the first airline in the United States to recycle service items from aircraft such as drinking cups, bottles, and magazines. In the past 10 years, Delta has recycled more than three million pounds of aluminum and other materials from waste. Similarly to JetBlue, Delta also announced a $2 million investment for sustainable airplane fuel, which is expected to supply Delta’s flights in airports like Seattle, Portland and Los Angeles starting this year.
Trains Over Planes:
Personally, I believe planes are better than trains for a multitude of reasons. However, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, an airline based in Amsterdam, recently announced they would replace one of five daily flights between Amsterdam Schiphol Airport and Brussels Airport with a train service operated by Thales and NS Dutch Railways in order to promote a sustainable future. KLM’s “Fly Responsibly” program, which promotes CO2 reductions and biofuel, continues to grow with this train service. Not only would the environment benefit, but KLM will now have the ability to expand its route network as Amsterdam Schiphol Airport is a highly slot-constrained airport meaning flights are limited to and from the airport.
Similarly to KLM’s plan, the Catalan government in Spain would like to completely scrap every flight between Barcelona and Madrid. The government claims the train emits zero emissions and has a similar travel time to a flight from Barcelona to Madrid. While this promotes sustainability, airlines operating flights between the two airports will be economically affected as this flight is lucrative to their networks with over 2.5 million passengers in a year traveling between the two airports.
Aviation’s Future Environmental Sustainability Innovations:
With the current innovations in environmentally-friendly technology, there’s no doubt improvements will continue to rise.
For example, airlines will soon be flying Boeing’s newest model and the world’s largest twin-engine aircraft, the 777X, which delivers 10% lower emissions compared to the current competition.
On the other hand, Airbus is planning to use the aerodynamics of geese to lower fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This is possible by using aircraft to replicate the “V” pattern migrating geese fly in. When birds flap their wings, air flows over the wings and swirls upwards behind it. This creates a wake, which is kinetic energy in the form of air movement. Geese fly in a V pattern to save energy by exploiting “wake-energy retrieval” when flying. Similarly, airplanes also create a wake when flying, so Airbus is planning to take advantage of this by having aircraft fly three kilometers apart to save fuel and reduce emissions.
The Future Of Electric Aircraft:
While current aircraft use fossil fuels to power flights, Airbus’ next project is the “E-Fan X”, an electric commercial four-engined aircraft designed to jump towards zero-emissions in the next 20 years. The E-Fan X is a complex hybrid-electric aircraft demonstrator with four engines powered by electric propulsion units with batteries and generators. Airbus’ motivation for creating electric aircraft is to achieve a 50% reduction in aircraft CO2 emissions by 2050.
Conclusion:
Overall, the aviation industry will become more sustainable as innovations continue to prosper.
What do you think the future of aviation will rely on? Could electric aircraft be the solution to emissions or could airplanes be replaced entirely? Do you think trains should replace airplanes? What do you suggest airlines should do to reduce or eliminate emissions?
Sources:
27 comments:
I believe electric aircrafts could reduce emissions just like cars, but I don’t believe will will be able to replace airplanes entirely. It would be pretty expensive to build electric airplanes and big enough batteries for the airplane to run on. Trains release less emissions than planes do, therefore we should start using trains more often. Using trains can help mitigate emissions and help the environment. I don’t believe that planes can be entirely replaced with trains though. You can’t ride a train over the ocean and some people need to go to other countries across the globe. I have family in India, if we get rid of planes all together, it won’t be easy for them to come to the US or for us to go to them. To reduce emissions we can fly more efficient aircrafts and use sustainable lower-carbon alternative fuel. We can also use technology to create efficient pathways for flights and decrease delays that occur on a constant basis.
I think the future of aviation will rely on electric aircrafts. We have already seen electric automobiles storm the roads, now it’s time for planes. Obviously this will take much longer, as there are more safety concerns and the travel times are much longer with planes, but this could be vital for the environment. Even thinking about my family’s plane usage, we fly a lot. We go on various vacations like Italy, Egypt, China, India, Spain, and more. These were long trips and so many people take trips like those. I think if airplanes became more reliant on electricity, we could very well promote plane travel, while keeping emissions low. I like Delta’s ideas about recycling the single-use plastic items, and I think more airlines should pick up on that. They saved 30,000 pounds of plastic waste, and if every airline did that, we could see a huge dent in the plastic waste in landfills. I do think trains should replace airplanes, especially for shorter trips. Barcelona to Madrid should never be a flight, as trains are plentiful in Europe and are less harmful to the environment.
As mentioned in this blog, the efforts made by aircraft manufacturers and airlines to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is extremely impressive. Progress is being made in the transportation industry to ensure a distant future for humans on earth. This by itself is a significant accomplishment, especially when compared to other industries that pay no attention to the environment. In my opinion, to further the environmental sustainability of aviation, we have to aim towards creating a fully electric aircraft. The benefits of an electric aircraft far out way the disadvantages. Although this may take a lot of research and the collective efforts of scientists and engineers, once this is achieved the carbon-dioxide emissions will significantly decrease and, as a bonus, there will be significant noise reduction. As if now, we are unsure of all the pros and cons of an electric aircraft, but all sufficient analysis of its effects steer towards a brighter future.
In order to decrease carbon emissions, we must look at all aspects of what we are emitting and, of course, air travel is one of these. If relying more on ground transport like trains will help to decrease carbon emissions, then we should definitely take more approaches towards this. Realistically, though, this could never fully replace airplanes. I believe that electric airplanes could be the new way to go about travel in the future as long as the technology is able to be developed and tested for safety. We have recently seen the public transition slowly to hybrid and electric vehicles, so why couldn’t air travel take the same route? This type of innovation is essential to reaching net zero emissions in the future, as is necessary to conserve our planet.
I believe that electric airplanes would greatly affect the level of carbon emissions from aircrafts. Electric and hybrid cars have become a popular alternative to gasoline-fueled cars, and I think the future of airplanes may be similar. I appreciate the work that Delta is doing to eliminate single-use plastic items, as it is a small, but major, step to making flying more sustainable. As an alternative to shorter flights, I think trains are a strong solution to reducing emissions. Although many would prefer a plane over trains, education of the matter might change people’s minds, especially those who take weekly or monthly trips to nearby major cities.
I am interested to see the future of this industry. It would be quite interesting to see if engineers and innovators will be able to design completely electric planes. Humans would be getting rid of a massive amount of carbon emissions if we were able to move away completely from fuel driven planes. Another interesting concept to explore would be solar or even wind powered energy. If scientists were able to harness this vast amount of energy, the opportunities would be endless. Although trains may have a less significant impact on the Earth, I believe that planes are still a more preferable method of transportation, especially for transcontinental travel. However, across land, I believe that there should be more support for the use of trains. I suggest that the best way for airlines to reduce emissions is through funding research in order to find a more sustainable method of flying.
I think that electric aircraft is definitely a plausible solution to the great carbon emission struggle that the world is dealing with right now. As with many other transportation systems, electric and hybrid alternates are largely used in everyday life. Even though we don't use planes on a daily basis, the emission used throughout the one or two trips taken over a period of time adds up to large amounts. This massive use of fossil fuels makes it necessary for airlines to find a way to tackle the solution; at the same time, we can also help the environment by trying to limit our flying time when it's not needed. Driving to places less than 10 hours away can save much of the carbon emissions in the air and even trains within the city and towns can contain fossil fuel consumption. This way, people can continue traveling and exploring the world while also saving the environment.
This is a very interesting topic as many main arguments against pollution is due to emissions caused from vehicles and aircraft these day. As the electric car is gradually becoming more common and popular, it only makes sense that electric plans will slowly emerge too. I am excited to see how we can use it for commercial purposes and how much would it cost. Most often, electrically powered technologies tend to cost more, however in the name of a better environment they could be lowered. Despite airplanes having a massive carbon emission, they already help reduce it by transporting large amounts of people rather than they all separately attempt to travel in their own vehicles, and as we create more sustainable and environmentally friendly aircraft, we can really reduce the pollution in the environment and potentially create gateways to even better technologies. As much as I would like to see prices lowered for these to go commercial, it would benefit if these operations could be well funded to push the limits of technologies to see how even flying can be safe for the environment. Ultimately, we still have a long wya to go in development, but soon we will be able to create a safe environment for future generations.
As stated in this blog, since the aviation industry in the past has been responsible for much of the fossil fuel use and carbon emissions, I think that it is vital that companies look into reformations to reduce their environmental impacts. This is important because if this industry continues to use the technology that is not environmentally sustainable, it is likely that we will get to a point where the environment can’t sustain anymore flights, which are a major part it many people’s lives. I do think electric airplanes are a better solution than replacing them with trains because airplanes provide quicker transportation. Some flights are also impossible to replace, such as those that go overseas. While it may make sense to replace airplanes with trains on shorter flights (ex: DFW to Austin), it doesn’t make sense for longer ones. Even then, airplanes should still remain as an option for shorter distances, in case of emergency situations when people have to get to their destinations fast. I think that replacing their fuel sources with more sustainable ones may be the best path airlines should take to reduce/eliminate emissions.
Wow! This report was very detailed, which was cool. I think the aviation industry pays a big role in the consumption of fossil fuels, but the demand for travel powers it too. It would be unrealistic to cease world travel, but with the rise of more reliable communications technology like FaceTime, some business meetings would not have to be held in person. I loved seeing how airplane machinery is evolving to be more eco-friendly in many companies. This, along with using electricity-based / hybrid airplanes and “green” fuels, could at a very physical level, reduce the resources consumed. Other ways to limit CO2 emissions would be practice-based, such as using less fuel taxi-ing across the runway or filling more flights to full capacity. Either way, it’s great to see innovation so driven by environmental concern.
I believe that the future for aviation and aircrafts in electric aviation. I believe that this is the future because just like cars, planes will transform also. The future holds a lot and many new technologies will be coming into our world, so I believe that electric aviation is something small, and it won’t take too long for it to become popular. I also believe that trains will not be able to replace airplanes; I think that airplanes will never be replaceable. I believe this because using airplane to travel and export is very fast and efficient; no other types of transportation will be able to beat it. And coming back to what I said, I believe that airlines should start using electricity to fuel airplanes just so it can be more sustainable; it is our future.
I do believe that reducing the usage of planes will make a drastic difference in carbon emissions. However, I am aware that this is a lot easier said than done due to the world's reliance on being interconnected. When I read this blog regarding electric aviation, I was surprised because I wasn't aware of this mode of transportation. I think that the usage of electric aviation is preferable over the usage of other long-distance methods of transportation such as trains since it's faster. However, I think that since this mode of transportation is newer, safety aspects should be taken into consideration.
I am glad to see that airplane manufacturers are taking precautions and manufacturing eco-friendly airplanes, but I think eventually, electric airplanes are going to become a necessity if the environment keeps declining. I think as the rest of the world switches to electric cars and trains, planes are the next logical step to take. While some may argue that we should just replace planes with trains, that is not logical. Unless we built underground canals, like the English Channel, it will be impossible to replace overseas flights. I think that we as Americans should utilizes trains more though.
Pollution from air travel is one of the greatest threats climate change-wise. The sheer amount of greenhouse gasses emitted from planes probably single handedly expedited the process of global warming. Electric airplanes would be the much needed solution to this situation. Of course this would take a lot of time to develop but the result would contribute to the end goal of net zero emission. A way to reduce airline emission could be to use a more sustainable fuel source. Realistically I don’t think trains could ever replace planes because theres a level of both comfort and excitement that comes from flying that cannot be replicated in a train ride. However I think that expanding train systems globally could provide a much cheaper form of travel that would be used extensively.
I think that the fuel source for future airplanes should be renewable resources, however, I know that this is unlikely due to the limited amount of this type of fuel source. Another good fuel source for airplanes is electricity because it has less carbon emissions than modern planes. Trains could never replace airplanes because airplanes are much faster than trains and airplanes are not restricted to run only over land. Additionally, train tracks would have a high maintenance cost especially if they ran over seas or if there were a lot of train tracks.
Although developing fully electric aircraft will be immensely harder than electric cars, it is a necessary step towards sustainable transportation. We could also work to improve the fuel efficiency of airplanes, which will also help their sustainability until a better energy source is found. However, switching entirely to trains is not a good idea because airplanes are currently the fastest way to travel, and give us cross-continental access. In order to reach a goal of zero emissions and truly sustainable travel, new and more efficient energy sources have to be developed.
Firstly, I liked how your article described positive innovations instead of detailing how we are doomed (i mean i understand that some of these issues are important but it really just makes me hate humanity). I'm really excited to see the emergence of sustainable air travel so I don't need to feel guilty every time i take a flight. Another way planes could be more environmentally sustainable is to maybe set more restrictions on private jet usage because that really adds up. The future generations shouldn't have to suffer because some evangelist decided to scam his followers into buying him a plane. Therefore, I think that placing more restrictions may be another method, apart from the ones mentioned in your article, to make air travel more sustainable.
Okay first off, kudos to you for providing a detailed and insightful yet interesting article! I'm so glad that airplane manufacturers and airlines are trying to make airplane flights more sustainable because in the beginning of APES class, I was shocked at the huge ecological footprint that airplane flying has on the earth. The future of aviation would most likely rely on not only more efficient fuel usage and faster flights but also rely on a reduction of greenhouse gas emission (since airplanes are known to cause a LOT of pollution). An electric aircraft does sound like a good solution, but I feel like this would, unfortunately, cause certain rare metals to be used unsustainably (considering how electric cars use a lot of rare metals, too). However, I do appreciate the current efforts of companies to reduce air pollution, carbon emissions, and noise pollution caused by airplanes, and I believe that with this current pace of progress, the future of aviation would not be compromised and will in fact flourish.
I never realized how much air travel contributes to the large issue of climate change through carbon emissions. Using newer aircraft and alternative forms of transportation are both possible solutions to this problem. One problem that can be more easily solved is the idling of these planes on the tarmac. Under busy circumstances, at large airports such as DFW and Atlanta, planes can wait in line for more than hour to take off. Not only does this create inconvenience for the passengers, but the plane burns thousands of gallons of fuel while simply idling. Spreading out flight times, staffing air traffic control, and planning in advance, could prevent these problems in busy airports. This delay also costs the airlines hundreds of dollars, and is harmful to the environment and the economy. Another form of public transportation that the United States must innovate are subways. Other countries, such as Japan, are experts at allowing a large amount of people to travel around the city. American cities are much more reliant on a large quantity of cars.
i was incredibly shocked to learn that CO2 emissions from air travel alone are projected to triple in a mere 30 years. I’ve always viewed air travel in a positive light until now, because I only considered the economic and time-saving benefits rather than environmental consequences. Hearing of the new aircraft such as Boeing’s 787 gives me hope, but I fear that implementation of these new more environmentally conscious planes will take too long to have an impact significant enough to reduce the scale of our carbon dioxide emissions before they spiral out of control. I think that in order to help reduce the effect and worsening of the environmental impact from airplanes, we should invest in other similarly efficient travel that is available to a wider range of people at a lower price point. More public transportation or ways to travel farther like by train or bus would reduce the reliance we have on air travel and benefit the environment in the short-run before these new planes can be implemented.
I sincerely hope that the future if aviation will rely solely on renewable energy. I believe that the nations of the world should invest in mag- lev train lines that would link major cities and eliminate the need for flights within a nation and reduce emissions. However, planes are obviously necessary fro travel across oceans or long distances. I honestly believe that mag-lev trains are a great replacement option for trains and would reduce the amount of daily air and also car travel around the world. It is much more economical to get on a train than to drive in a single occupant vehicle on crowded highways. Reducing the amount of air travel necessary will reduce emissions produced by airlines because it means less planes will be required to be produced and those that are should be made to be more environmentally friendly.
I never realized how big of an impact air travel had on the rate of climate change. It is very impressive that airline companies are making so much effort to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. The new aircrafts being developed gives me hope for the future, but I fear it may take too long in order to actually have an impact on the environment. However, it is good that efforts are being made. Electric fuel usage is likely what airlines are going to start relying on if they start trying to be more environmentally friendly. Switching to train only transportation is not very practical, considering the fact that our planet has land separated by vast oceans. The future of aviation depends on the efforts of the aircraft companies to reduce air pollution, carbon emissions, and noise pollution.
It’s really cool that you touched on this topic. I remember learning about airplane emissions in class and how harmful it is to the environment. Paired alongside with other transportation techniques done by humans, I understood that it could be one of the most harmful impacts we can do to our atmosphere and air quality. I constantly hear about how detrimental our actions are to the environment and the ways to reduce impact from our car usage, but I was never educated on the steps we take to lessen the impact from airplanes. Writing this blog was very educational for me, as not only was this new information that I’ve never encountered, but it also shows us the different perspectives companies have in tackling this conflict. I believe that the aviation industry should start replacing their less environmental-friendly planes with these more modern, environmentally sustainable planes.
When we calculated our carbon footprint in class, I remember how harmful it was to the environment to fly on a airplane even once a year. Although these sustainable improvements are the right way to go, I don't know how feasible it will be for developing countries to completely scrap or even replace parts of their current airplanes. In a lecture organized by the National Science Honor Society, a professor from UTA who taught aerospace engineering talked to us about how airplanes were being innovated to be more sustainable. He also talked about flying in a V-formation to save energy when flying, but I don't know how feasible that would be since multiple plane rarely travel together at the same time to and from the same airport. According to his lecture, aerospace engineers create technology that mimics nature, as it is the most effiecent and oragnized system out there, as seen in the V-formation technique.
I believe electric aircrafts have the ability to reduce emissions like cars, however, I don’t believe that humans would be able to replace airplanes entirely. To begin, it would be pretty expensive to build new electric airplanes along with batteries large enough for the airplane to use. In addition, trains release less emissions than planes, so people should start advocating for increased train use in order to reduce the amount of emissions released. By using trains, emissions can be mitigated and therefore help the environment. Although is may be a solution, I don’t believe that planes can be entirely replaced with trains. There are no overseas trains available, so people can’t travel to other counties only by train. For example, I my grandparents live in Korea, so if we get rid of planes all together, it won’t be easy for them to come to the US or for us to go visit them.
The fact that airplanes contribute to such a huge percentage of the carbon footprint humans leave is a change that needs to made. While efforts are being made with electric airplanes, I don’t believe that will solve the issue. Relying on electric airplanes also uses fossil fuels to provide the electricity. Therefore, it would also be contributing the carbon footprint humans leave on the planet. However, the acknowledgement and the effort being made to reduce the carbon emissions is good, especially with Boeing’s newest model. Unfortunately, airplanes have become so integrated into society that simply removing them would serve to be extremely difficult if not impossible. So, alternative methods of traveling such as trains would not work. In conclusion, while the amount of carbon emissions released by airplanes is a big problem, electric airplanes and alternative methods of traveling won’t do the trick.
There needs to be efforts made by airplane companies to reduce emissions. Thankfully, due to social pressure, major companies have been reducing their carbon footprint and potentially reducing it. However, for corporations that operate without making changes, society doesn't have the ability to influence that change, so as a generality, we should be moving towards electric planes. I'm not sure if electric planes can entirely fix the problem at least in the near future, so it makes more sense to push more regulations (if they don't continue the current trend at least)
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